Weather Alerts For Ithaca, MI

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Missouri Valley. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are all possible. Synopsis Within the base of a broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong midlevel westerlies over the northern CONUS, an embedded positive-tilt midlevel trough will overspread the northern Plains through the period. In the low-levels, a weak surface low will move slowly eastward across western/central KS during the day, before being overtaken by a cold front into the evening hours. Central/Southern Plains into the Missouri Valley At the start of the period, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms should be tracking eastward from NE into IA -- along the nose of a gradually weakening nocturnal low-level jet. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor large hail with this activity. At the same time, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and lingering convection should be advancing eastward from eastern KS into MO. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass should favor a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity along related outflow into the afternoon hours. Moderate surface-based buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear will support organized clusters and potentially supercells structures, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Some guidance suggests that this activity may grow upscale into one or more organized clusters while moving east-southeastward into the evening hours. Farther west, strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding the surface low will result in scattered thunderstorm development from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield a strongly unstable air mass, which combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will favor organized clusters and semi-discrete supercells. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts will be the main concerns with initially semi-discrete storms. With time, additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southeastward-moving cold front. As a result, several intense/organized clusters will spread east-southeastward through a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy -- posing an increasing risk of scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph). Despite the expectation for upscale growth, embedded supercells will remain possible, and given ample low-level shear and rich moisture, a couple tornadoes will also be possible.