Weather Alerts For Luray, MO

# HEADLINE -------------------- Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Probabilistic Outlook Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities # SUMMARY -------------------- This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for river basins in the NWS Quad Cities service area. This outlook is divided into three parts, the first part for the probabilities of minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water and the final part for low water. In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 06/01/2026 - 08/30/2026 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 16.0 17.0 20.5 : <5 11 <5 8 <5 <5 Dubuque 17.0 18.0 21.5 : 7 14 <5 10 <5 <5 Bellevue LD12 17.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 Fulton LD13 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 7 13 <5 7 <5 5 Camanche 17.0 18.5 20.5 : 6 12 <5 7 <5 5 Le Claire LD14 11.0 12.0 13.5 : 8 13 6 8 <5 6 Rock Island LD15 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 10 21 9 16 <5 7 Ill. City LD16 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 10 19 9 16 <5 9 Muscatine 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 11 23 9 16 <5 9 New Boston LD17 15.0 16.5 18.5 : 11 27 9 18 6 11 Keithsburg 14.0 15.5 17.0 : 11 26 8 17 8 10 Gladstone LD18 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 11 28 8 14 7 9 Burlington 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 11 25 8 15 8 10 Keokuk LD19 16.0 17.5 19.0 : 8 12 7 9 <5 7 Gregory Landing 15.0 18.0 25.0 : 10 34 8 12 <5 <5 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 14.0 17.0 20.0 : 30 28 19 19 8 8 Maquoketa 24.0 26.0 28.5 : 14 16 8 8 <5 7 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 13 14 7 7 5 5 Anamosa Shaw Rd 14.5 18.0 21.5 : 24 24 10 10 <5 <5 De Witt 4S 11.0 11.5 12.5 : 56 69 47 57 33 38 :North Skunk River Sigourney 16.0 18.0 21.0 : 31 36 24 30 10 13 :Skunk River Augusta 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 18 28 16 20 7 13 :Cedar River Vinton 15.0 18.0 19.0 : 16 19 <5 6 <5 <5 Palo Blairs Ferry 12.5 15.5 17.0 : 18 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cedar Rapids 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 20 24 15 18 <5 8 Cedar Bluff 16.0 20.0 26.0 : 21 24 <5 7 <5 <5 Conesville 13.0 15.0 16.5 : 34 41 15 15 <5 <5 :Iowa River Marengo 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 43 47 30 37 9 14 Iowa City 23.5 24.5 26.0 : <5 5 <5 5 <5 <5 Lone Tree 16.0 18.5 22.0 : 21 25 5 11 <5 <5 Columbus Jct 23.0 25.0 26.5 : 8 12 <5 7 <5 <5 Wapello 21.0 25.0 27.5 : 21 25 <5 9 <5 <5 Oakville 11.0 15.0 20.0 : 20 24 <5 8 <5 <5 :English River Kalona 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 35 36 19 24 12 12 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 12 13 6 8 <5 6 St Francisville 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 17 22 11 10 <5 5 :Fox River Wayland 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 23 23 10 11 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River Freeport 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 15 14 10 13 <5 <5 :Rock River Como 12.5 15.5 18.0 : 15 20 7 10 <5 <5 Joslin 12.0 14.0 16.5 : 28 38 21 28 10 16 Moline 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 24 36 17 25 13 21 :Green River Geneseo 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 5 14 <5 5 <5 <5 :La Moine River Colmar 20.0 22.0 24.0 : 36 45 26 28 14 16 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 06/01/2026 - 08/30/2026 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 6.2 6.2 7.0 8.9 11.4 14.9 16.0 Dubuque 8.6 8.7 9.4 10.9 13.2 16.8 17.8 Bellevue LD12 6.8 6.8 7.8 9.6 12.3 14.7 16.1 Fulton LD13 6.4 6.5 7.8 9.3 12.5 15.0 17.1 Camanche 9.1 9.2 9.8 10.9 13.2 15.4 17.7 Le Claire LD14 5.5 5.5 6.2 7.1 9.0 10.0 12.4 Rock Island LD15 6.8 6.8 8.2 9.8 12.7 15.3 17.8 Ill. City LD16 5.4 5.4 6.5 8.3 12.2 15.1 17.7 Muscatine 7.3 7.3 8.1 10.1 13.7 16.9 19.7 New Boston LD17 6.5 6.5 7.7 9.9 13.5 15.8 18.8 Keithsburg 7.7 7.7 9.0 10.4 12.6 14.2 18.6 Gladstone LD18 3.5 3.5 4.1 5.8 8.6 10.3 15.3 Burlington 9.6 9.6 10.1 11.5 13.5 15.3 19.5 Keokuk LD19 5.7 5.7 6.2 7.8 10.5 12.1 19.0 Gregory Landing 7.4 7.4 8.6 10.6 13.6 15.0 21.7 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 4.3 4.4 6.3 8.4 14.8 19.1 21.1 Maquoketa 11.4 11.5 12.9 16.0 20.3 25.1 28.2 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 5.3 5.5 6.2 7.4 9.3 12.4 15.2 Anamosa Shaw Rd 5.8 5.9 8.2 11.2 14.4 18.1 19.6 De Witt 4S 6.9 7.0 9.4 11.3 13.0 13.7 14.0 :North Skunk River Sigourney 6.2 7.0 9.7 13.8 17.7 21.2 24.3 :Skunk River Augusta 3.6 4.0 6.2 8.7 12.9 18.4 22.1 :Cedar River Vinton 4.0 4.5 6.4 9.5 12.3 16.2 16.8 Palo Blairs Ferry 4.0 4.4 6.2 8.7 11.1 13.9 14.4 Cedar Rapids 4.4 4.7 5.6 7.9 10.3 14.9 15.8 Cedar Bluff 5.8 6.2 8.2 11.1 14.2 18.3 19.6 Conesville 6.7 7.2 8.8 11.5 13.6 15.2 15.7 :Iowa River Marengo 7.8 8.6 11.0 14.4 17.6 18.9 19.8 Iowa City 11.3 12.0 13.5 16.2 19.1 20.5 22.3 Lone Tree 6.2 7.1 8.7 11.2 14.7 17.7 18.6 Columbus Jct 10.7 11.7 13.4 16.6 19.5 22.4 24.4 Wapello 12.8 13.5 15.4 18.2 20.4 22.5 25.0 Oakville 3.2 3.7 5.2 7.7 9.7 11.9 14.7 :English River Kalona 4.9 5.1 7.5 11.4 15.4 18.8 19.8 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 13.2 13.6 15.9 16.4 18.1 22.5 26.3 St Francisville 10.8 11.7 13.9 14.7 17.1 22.4 24.2 :Fox River Wayland 1.7 2.7 4.2 8.2 14.2 17.9 18.7 :Pecatonica River Freeport 6.2 6.2 6.4 8.3 11.3 14.0 15.3 :Rock River Como 4.7 4.7 5.2 6.4 9.3 13.1 16.1 Joslin 6.3 6.3 7.1 8.7 12.7 16.5 18.6 Moline 8.7 8.7 9.0 9.8 11.9 15.1 16.0 :Green River Geneseo 3.3 4.2 5.5 7.0 9.6 12.8 15.0 :La Moine River Colmar 4.2 4.6 8.4 16.6 22.2 24.9 25.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 06/01/2026 - 08/30/2026 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 35.0 31.0 28.3 24.4 21.1 19.4 18.2 Dubuque 35.0 31.0 28.3 24.4 21.1 19.4 18.2 Bellevue LD12 36.4 31.6 28.7 24.8 21.3 19.6 18.5 Fulton LD13 38.2 33.4 30.2 25.9 22.6 20.9 19.6 Camanche 38.2 33.4 30.2 25.9 22.6 20.9 19.6 Le Claire LD14 40.6 37.0 31.9 26.8 23.5 21.7 20.3 Rock Island LD15 45.5 41.6 36.1 30.4 26.8 24.8 22.7 Ill. City LD16 47.4 43.0 37.5 31.7 28.0 25.9 23.6 Muscatine 47.4 43.0 37.5 31.7 28.0 25.9 23.6 New Boston LD17 47.6 43.1 37.6 31.7 28.1 25.9 23.6 Keithsburg 52.8 50.1 42.7 36.0 31.5 29.2 26.4 Gladstone LD18 52.9 50.2 42.8 36.0 31.5 29.3 26.4 Burlington 53.4 50.6 43.0 36.1 31.6 29.3 26.5 Keokuk LD19 58.5 52.1 41.0 34.5 28.2 25.0 22.1 Gregory Landing 65.3 59.0 46.1 37.1 31.0 26.6 24.8 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Maquoketa 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Anamosa Shaw Rd 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 De Witt 4S 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 :North Skunk River Sigourney 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 :Skunk River Augusta 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 :Cedar River Vinton 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 Palo Blairs Ferry 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 Cedar Rapids 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 Cedar Bluff 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 Conesville 2.9 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 :Iowa River Marengo 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Iowa City 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 Lone Tree 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 Columbus Jct 4.7 4.3 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.0 2.0 Wapello 4.8 4.4 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0 Oakville 4.8 4.4 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.0 :English River Kalona 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 5.3 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 St Francisville 5.5 3.4 2.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 :Fox River Wayland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Pecatonica River Freeport 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 :Rock River Como 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.4 Joslin 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.6 Moline 4.9 4.6 4.4 3.7 3.2 3.0 2.8 :Green River Geneseo 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 :La Moine River Colmar 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site at http://www.weather.gov/dvn for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued near the end of next month. # DETAILS -------------------- ISSUED AT Monday, June 15, 2026 at 8:48 AM CDT ISSUED BY National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL HEADER Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF IOWA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF CENTRAL INDIANA SUMMARY Severe storms producing hail remain possible from southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma this evening. Isolated severe hail or wind will persist across the northern Plains and into Iowa by Wednesday morning. Isolated severe storms may persist from Indiana into western Ohio this evening. IN/OH/MI 00Z DTX and ILN soundings show modest instability but favorable shear profiles to sustain cellular storm mode this evening. However, storms across this region are beginning to decrease in coverage and intensity, though isolated strong to severe storms may persist with marginal hail or brief tornado risk before the upper trough moves out of the area and the air mass stabilizes. KS/OK/TX Panhandle A mixed boundary layer, increasing low-level jet and northwest flow aloft is aiding a few cells over southwest KS into northwest OK. Periodic large damaging hail remain possible, and a cell or two may persist this evening, perhaps toward the eastern TX Panhandle as moisture returns northwestward. However, the cooling boundary layer will eventually result in decreasing coverage. From MT to IA Scattered storms exist from MT into ND, beneath cool temperatures aloft with the developing upper trough. Locally severe gusts may occur with any of this activity as a relatively dry/mixed sub cloud layer exists on 00Z soundings. Later tonight, as the low-level jet increases into the central Plains, a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will reach eastern NE into IA, and may fuel cells initially producing hail following a possible MCS.