Weather Alerts For Oak City, NC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA SUMMARY Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Synopsis A vigorous short-wave trough and associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet streak will progress from southern Saskatchewan into northwest Ontario with the southern fringe of modest height falls and stronger mid-level flow situated along the international border. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum will move through AR within the base of a mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley, while a separate short-wave trough advances through OR into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Canadian disturbance will move south into the Dakotas and upper MS Valley, while a backdoor-type cold front pushes south through parts of the Mid-Atlantic. A lee trough will extend south from the front through central VA into the Carolinas with some model signal for surface low development along the trough over central VA. Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will coincide with the northeast extension of an EML plume to yield moderate to strong instability Monday afternoon ahead of the cold front with MLCAPE of 2500-3500+ J/kg. The modest height falls aloft will combine with frontal convergence to yield widely scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon in the Red River Valley. Subsequent storm development is possible along the front as far south as northwest or north-central NE by late afternoon or early evening. The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt is forecast across the Red River Valley with a vector orientation that is largely perpendicular to the surface front. As such, supercells appear possible initially with the primary hazard being large hail potentially in excess of two inches. Effective SRH of generally less than 100-150 m2/s2 is forecast into late afternoon, during the period of more discrete storm modes, which may tend to limit a more robust tornado threat. 00Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in depicting the upscale growth of storms into a linear system by evening over eastern SD and western MN with an associated risk for severe wind gusts. Weaker vertical shear with southward extent from central SD into northern NE is expected to limit the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest storms. Northeast Idaho through southern Montana and northern Wyoming The short-wave trough moving into the northern Rockies will be attended by a belt of 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb, which will enhance vertical shear across the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon from the Bitterroot to Big Horn Mountains amidst a steep lapse rate and at least modestly unstable environment. There is some model signal that an MCS could evolve over northeast WY Monday evening. Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support at least episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. The expected areal coverage of the severe weather threat currently precludes higher wind and hail probabilities. Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of the lee trough and surface low Monday afternoon with MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, as will vertical shear. Nonetheless, convergence along the lee trough and backdoor front is expected to foster scattered thunderstorms by early to mid afternoon with the potential for upscale growth into loosely organized clusters by late afternoon into evening. The presence of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. An upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk is possible in later outlooks if a preferred corridor of damaging wind potential becomes apparent in future model data. Lower Mississippi Valley Forcing for ascent preceding the vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis is expected to focus scattered afternoon thunderstorms from AR into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys. Vertical shear will remain relatively weak; however, the presence of a moist and moderately to strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg) will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of damaging winds and marginally severe hail.