Weather Alerts For Reston, OR
Severe Storm Risk
-There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY SUMMARY Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across Kansas, southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the south-central High Plains and northern California/western Oregon. Central Plains and Lower/Middle Missouri Valley A frontal zone will focus and shift northward toward across Kansas toward the Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa/Missouri border vicinities today, before gradually accelerating southeastward tonight. The region will be influenced later today by a secondary shortwave trough digging southeastward over the northern Plains, with the persistence of cyclonic and somewhat strengthening mid/upper-level flow. On the nose of south-southwesterly lower tropospheric winds, low-level moisture will diurnally increase along/south of the front, offset by ample mixing across Kansas, resulting in surface dewpoints mainly in the lower/middle 50s F into peak heating. Beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE values are expected near/south of the front. After some early day thunderstorms, more intense surface-based thunderstorm development should occur as early as 22-23z/5-6pm CDT near the boundary including portions of northern Kansas/southeast Nebraska to the Iowa/Missouri border region, with other more isolated and higher-based storms possible across western Kansas and the nearby High Plains in vicinity of the lee trough/surface low. Moderately strong westerlies will reside along/north of the boundary, with 40+ kt effective shear supporting supercells capable of large hail, potentially some in excess of 2 inches in diameter. Some tornado potential may exist mainly across northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri near the boundary, but this overall potential will tend to be mitigated by modest-caliber moisture and the influence of diurnal mixing. Severe winds are also possible into evening as storms tend to cluster and spread/increase east-southeastward during the evening, although the modest early season moisture and nocturnal influences will lead to a diminished intensity trend into late evening. Northern California/western Oregon As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon with scattered thunderstorm development expected into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and CAPE will exist inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of the trough. As lapse rates steepen and flow aloft increases, storms may be capable of strong to severe wind gusts and possibly some hail.