Weather Alerts For Shady Side, MD

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorm development is possible today, particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains. Discussion Models indicate that amplification of mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America will continue through this period, with large-scale troughing and an embedded cyclonic circulation digging inland across the Pacific Northwest through Great Basin and northern Rockies, downstream of building ridging. As this occurs, ridging is likely to build across the northern Great Plains through upper Mississippi Valley, but broadly confluent, zonal flow is forecast to persist east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a mid-level trough accelerating east of the lower Great Lakes through New England and the Canadian Maritimes. On the southern periphery of this regime, a number of convectively generated perturbations may progress across the Ozarks Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through Mid Atlantic today through tonight. In lower levels, a weak surface low is forecast to migrate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England, before weakening. This may be accompanied by a reinforcing influx of somewhat cooler and drier area, in the wake of an ill-defined/diffuse preceding front overspreading the northern Mid Atlantic. To the west of the Appalachians, this boundary may become augmented in locations by convective outflow and developing areas of strengthening differential surface heating during the day. Across the high plains, fairly significant surface cyclogenesis centered across southeastern Montana is probable by 12Z Saturday, with deepening surface troughing southward to the lee of the Rockies. As a notable plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air spreads east of the higher terrain, through much of the Great Plains, initiation of stronger thunderstorm development may largely be confined to the higher terrain, before propagating into the deepening surface troughing across the adjacent plains. Otherwise, to the east of the Great Plains, forcing for ascent and destabilization along the weak front, and within low-level warm advection to the east-southeast of the weak low, may provide support for at least widely scattered strong to severe storm development. Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley Higher coverage of potential strong to severe thunderstorm development may generally focus across this region, aided by at least a couple of convectively generated perturbations. There is spread among the various model output, but it still appears that this could include a fairly notable MCV migrating into the lower Ohio Valley by around 19-21Z, along a better-defined segment of the low-level baroclinic zone. With surface dew points forecast near 70F, and a convectively augmented belt of flow on the order of 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer contributing to sufficient shear for supercell structures, a couple of tornadoes appear possible in a corridor roughly centered along the Ohio River. Otherwise, several clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this afternoon and evening, possibly accompanied by developing corridors of strong to severe wind gusts. Northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains Given a corridor of at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization near and to the lee of the higher terrain, forcing for ascent and strengthening vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing probably will become supportive of a period of organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon through evening. This may include supercells and organizing clusters posing a risk for severe hail and wind, and at least some potential for a tornado or two.