Weather Alerts For West Hamburg, PA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected this evening from the Midwest into the central Appalachians. Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are also possible across western Oklahoma and far northwest Texas. Midwest/Central Appalachians/Mid Mississippi Valley Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level zonal flow pattern over the north-central and northeastern U.S., with a low-amplitude trough located in the western Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing near the axis of a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet from northern Indiana northeastward into the central Appalachians. Within this corridor, RAP forecast soundings have SBCAPE mostly in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 45 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will be favorable for multicell line segments capable of producing severe wind gusts this evening. A few supercells with isolated large hail and a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. As cells continue to increase in coverage this evening, the development of a larger-scale multicell line segment may occur. If this happens, then the wind-damage threat could increase into the mid to late evening...see MCD 314. Further southwest into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, scattered thunderstorms are developing near an axis of instability where SBCAPE is around 1000 J/kg, according to the RAP. This area is further away from the mid-level jet in the Great Lakes. For this reason, lift and deep-layer shear are somewhat weaker in the mid Mississippi Valley suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal this evening. Southern and Central Plains A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over western Kansas and western Oklahoma. At the surface, a cold front is located from southeast Kansas extending southwestward into west Texas. A broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing near the front from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas. The nearest forecast sounding is at Childress, which has MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and a 850-500 mb lapse rate near 8 C/km. This should be favorable for an isolated large hail and wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to persist for a couple more hours.