Weather Alerts For Bel-Nor, MO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUMMARY Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Scattered severe wind gusts are possible over southern Arizona late this afternoon through the evening. Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima (i.e., several MCVs evident in radar mosaic/satellite imagery) will advance slowly eastward across the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley and southern Appalachians. A developing thunderstorm cluster over the Upstate of SC will likely move east towards the Carolina coast later today. Ahead of this cluster, strong heating with temperatures warming into the 90s with lower to mid 70s F dewpoints will result in a moderately unstable airmass. Westerly low-level flow will imply the wind risk will likely overspread the coast. Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north along/near a weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast with northward extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Farther west, several clusters may evolve across the Mid South with damaging gusts the primary severe hazard. Visible-satellite imagery shows an MCV over northwest OK moving east. The airmass south of a stalled frontal zone will undergo strong heating via clear skies through mid afternoon. Short-term model guidance (HREF, HRRR-RRFS time-lagged ensemble) show scattered storms developing across north-central OK by 21-23 UTC. A well-mixed boundary layer will support strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of severe gusts with the more intense single and multicells. Have expanded the Slight Risk to account for this increased confidence in a severe threat across central OK. Southern Arizona With a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Four Corners, a weak easterly mid-level flow regime is present today across the Sonoran Desert. Very strong heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and this was depicted on the 12 UTC Phoenix raob, with an accompanying 11.6 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio. Forecast soundings show 20-kt easterly flow in the mid levels atop weak westerly surface flow. Very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will strongly favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts with the more intense cores. Severe gusts 60-80 mph appear likely with the stronger microbursts. This activity will likely transition from a few cells into an outflow-dominant cluster during the evening and coincide with a greater prevalence of severe gusts. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores.