Weather Alerts For Dayton, PA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS SUMMARY Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest. 20z Update Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing forecast based on recent convective trends and recent high-res guidance. Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes As of 20 UTC, regional radar mosaics depict a mature MCS ongoing across northern IL into northern WI with multiple severe gusts reported over the past few hours (see MCD #1066 for additional short-term details). Behind the MCS, a stout cold pool is in place from northeast MO into eastern IA and southeast MN featuring temperatures in the low 70s under a cirrus canopy. This cold pool casts some uncertainty on the degree of air mass recovery, and recent high-res guidance suggests that the primary severe threat may have passed for portions of the region. 30% wind probabilities were reduced to reflect this trend; however, southwesterly flow from the surface through 500 mb is advecting higher theta-e air in the low levels and steeper mid-level lapse rates east/northeastward into the cold pool. This will support re-development of strong to severe thunderstorms later this evening with primarily a risk for very large hail, so maintained Enhanced-caliber hail probabilities to reflect this potential. Central Kansas/northwest Missouri A volatile environment is emerging from central KS to northwest MO where MLCAPE is increasing to 3000-3500 J/kg per an 18 UTC TOP RAOB and recent mesoanalysis estimates. Additionally, the 18 UTC RAOB sampled effective bulk shear on the order of 50 knots as well as strong veering through the lowest kilometer. This environment is highly favorable for intense supercells, which appear likely in the coming hours based on recent GOES visible imagery (see MCD #1067 for additional short-term details). Recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensemble guidance and WoFS solutions all suggest the highest hail and tornado threat will likely emerge from the Salina, KS area northeastward into northwest MO through the evening. Storm mode remains a modulating factor with upscale growth likely, but a window exists for very strong discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Both tornado and hail risk contours were adjusted west/southwestward to reflect these recent trends. Eastern Nebraska/far western Iowa Latest forecast guidance continues to show a signal for elevated convection near the terminus of a low-level jet across eastern NE/western IA late tonight/early Thursday morning. Forecast soundings from these solutions, most notably recent RAP runs and the 12z NAM, hint that low-level moisture advection may be sufficient to support parcels rooted near the surface. While the potential is fairly low, there is some potential for a tornado threat if low-level moistening is sufficient given an otherwise favorable near-surface wind profile, warranting the introduction of 2% tornado probabilities.