The heaviest precipitation this week occurred across the Midwest and in parts of the southern Plains. Flooding rains developed from south Texas into the Gulf Coast region during and beyond the period considered in this week's analysis. Precipitation totals were several inches above normal for most of Indiana, central and northern Illinois, northeast Missouri, and southeast Iowa. Over the past several weeks, persistent rainfall across the Midwest and the eastern portion of the Plains has contributed to widespread drought improvement.

In contrast, the western Plains, the Carolinas, Virginia, and southern New England all reported less than normal rainfall this week, leading to scattered areas of deepening drought.

West

There was no widespread precipitation across the region this week. However, portions of western Oregon and Washington, Arizona, northern Idaho, New Mexico, southern Montana, southern Utah, and northern Wyoming recorded above-normal precipitation. Also, portions of California, Nevada, and Arizona reported well above-normal temperatures.

Drought degradation occurred across eastern Oregon, where moderate drought expanded. Worsening drought has impacted many locations in central and southern Montana. There is now a large area of extreme to exceptional drought (D3-D4) across most of southern Idaho. Severe to extreme drought also expanded in southwest Montana, while extreme drought increased in coverage across central Wyoming.

Several weeks of wetter-than-normal conditions in New Mexico allowed for improvements to extreme drought across northeastern and southern portions of the state, although slight expansion occurred in northern areas. Improved short-term moisture conditions in eastern Utah and western Colorado supported reductions in extreme drought, while degradation occurred across central and eastern Colorado. The impacts of a dry winter and below-normal snowpack continue to affect Colorado and other parts of the region, where increasing numbers of waterways are experiencing low-flow conditions.

High Plains

Across the High Plains states, drought continues to persist across western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Large areas of severe to exceptional drought (D3-D4) extend from central and eastern Wyoming, across western and northern Nebraska, and into far southern South Dakota. Continued lack of rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures led to worsening drought conditions in the plains of eastern Colorado and small portions of northwestern Kansas. Exceptional drought (D4) was expanded across three counties in the Nebraska panhandle, where pastures and dryland wheat conditions are the poorest seen in decades, because of the record warm, dry winter followed by meager spring rainfall. The agricultural impacts in western Nebraska were confirmed by drought indicators spanning the last 6 to 12 months.

Other areas of degradation occurred this past week over North Dakota, especially the western half of the state. Moderate drought expanded southward along the Montana border as dry conditions intensified in western North Dakota. Abnormal dryness was introduced from southwest to north-central North Dakota due to recent drier-than-normal conditions.

The only improvements in the High Plains region are in central and eastern Nebraska. A couple of bands of 2 to 4 inches of rain fell this past week along the Interstate 80 corridor and into the southeastern part of Nebraska, which is presently free of any drought or abnormal dryness.

Midwest

The Midwestern states continue to experience an active pattern lately, with another week of extensive rainfall and several severe weather episodes from Missouri and Iowa, east into Michigan and Ohio. As such, more drought relief occurred from northeastern Missouri through northern Illinois. All of Ohio and Indiana are free of any abnormally dry or drought conditions. All of Michigan is drought-free, with just a small area of abnormal dryness in the western part of the Upper Peninsula.

Northern Illinois and central Wisconsin saw the most widespread drought relief because of widespread areas of 2 to 4 inches or more of rainfall over the past week. Other big winners receiving heavy rainfall include southeastern Iowa, with 2 to 5 inches of rainfall. Northern Missouri had the heaviest rain, with totals of 5 to 10 inches, wiping out the last remaining stand of abnormal dryness over the northeast part of Missouri. Long-term severe to extreme drought remained in the bootheel of Missouri, where long-term signals still reflect substantial rainfall deficits.

Meanwhile, in Kentucky, the northern and western parts of the state experienced 1 to locally 4 inches of rainfall, helping to whittle back moderate to severe drought coverage. However, eastern Kentucky has not fared so well, with short-to long-term rainfall deficits continuing to accumulate. A new area of extreme drought (D3) has developed in southeast Kentucky this week, where hydrological impacts are being felt in the Kentucky River and Big Sandy watersheds. Low streamflow and water supply issues are already impacting eastern Kentucky at a level that would be concerning even later in the summer.

Other areas of drought expansion in the Midwest region occurred in northern Minnesota and northern Iowa, where long-term, persistent rainfall deficits continue to be a concern. In northern Minnesota, severe drought has expanded northeastward toward the Canadian border to reflect the persistent and intensifying drought signal across the northern part of the state. While southern and eastern Iowa have been experiencing substantial rainfall, the northern and western parts of the state have been persistently dry. The lack of rainfall this past week in north-central Iowa warranted the introduction of moderate drought just south of the Minnesota border, according to a local agriculture extension report.

South

Across the southern states, many areas experienced widespread and substantial rainfall of 2 to 6 inches over the past week, especially southern and eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. Most areas of the Deep South experienced drought improvement from all this rainfall. The only exception is in northeastern Tennessee, where drought degradations were made to the northwest of Knoxville due to worsening drought indicators.

The northeastern portion of the Texas Panhandle saw 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over an area of exceptional drought, helping to relieve drought conditions with a small downgrade to extreme drought there. However, for the most part, extreme to exceptional drought conditions persisted across the north Texas panhandle and the Oklahoma panhandle, and much of western Oklahoma. Despite weekly rainfall of 2 inches or more along the periphery of Arkansas, severe to exceptional drought continued to persist in much of the state due to the long-term rainfall deficits of the past several months.

Recent rainfall led to a large removal of abnormal dryness from east Texas, across eastern Oklahoma, to southwestern Missouri. Widespread heavy rainfall of 2 to 6 inches or more led to more drought coverage and intensity reduction across southeast Texas, central Louisiana, and parts of western Mississippi. Drought relief also extended into western and northwestern Tennessee, representing the eastern extent of this week’s large area of heavy rainfall in the South.

Southeast

Precipitation was uneven across the region this week. Georgia received the most widespread rainfall, with portions of central and northern Georgia recording above-normal precipitation. Near-normal precipitation was common across much of the region, although parts of Florida and southern Alabama were below normal for the week.

Most of the Southeast experienced near to above-normal temperatures, with the largest departures of 6 to 8 degrees above normal occurring across North Carolina and Virginia. North Carolina saw significant drought degradation, particularly across central portions of the state. Extreme and exceptional drought expanded this week, and much of the state is reporting stream flows near record-low levels.

Widespread precipitation supported continued drought improvement in Georgia, where drought intensity decreased across much of the state and only a few counties remain in extreme drought. Targeted improvements were also made in northern South Carolina and far western North Carolina, where recent rainfall provided relief. Conditions were largely unchanged in Virginia this week, as recent rainfall helped slow ongoing degradation. Severe drought improved in portions of northern Virginia, while extreme drought expanded slightly across southern sections of the state.

Florida continues to present a complex picture. Coastal areas along the Atlantic side of the state, as well as much of southern Florida, remained in an active rainfall pattern this week. A strong long-term hydrologic drought signal persists, but most other drought indicators continue to improve gradually. These improvements supported isolated drought reductions across portions of southern Florida.

Lake Okeechobee remains more than 2 feet below normal and continues to lose more water through outflows than it receives through inflows. Several areas within the Everglades remain without standing water, and burn bans are still in effect in several counties.

Conditions were steady this past week in Alabama, with only minor drought improvement in the far northern part of the state and along the Georgia border. However, summer heat is already showing signs of pressure on stream flows, especially in the southern part of Alabama.

Northeast

Warm temperatures dominated the region this week. Areas from eastern Massachusetts into Maine experienced temperatures 8 to 10 degrees above normal, with locally higher departures. Much of West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, western New York, and portions of New England also received above-normal precipitation.

Rainfall in Maine allowed for improvements to moderate drought across much of the state. The wet week also allowed drought conditions to ease across portions of western Maryland and West Virginia.

In contrast, hot weather and below-normal rainfall caused moderate drought to expand in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and eastern New York. Severe drought (D2) now encompasses all of Long Island, as well as eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Extreme drought expanded farther north in Delaware and into additional areas of eastern Maryland.

Looking Ahead

During the upcoming week, more heavy rainfall is expected in the Deep South, thanks to the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur. Deep tropical moisture will stream northeastward into the Southeastern states as well. This tropical rainfall will have the potential to produce more drought relief in southeastern Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. Current rainfall forecasts by the Weather Prediction Center also show the potential for several inches of rain from Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas, eastward into the Ohio River Valley, with more severe weather potential in the Midwest region. Other areas of appreciable rainfall are forecast for parts of the Northeast and the eastern portions of the High Plains.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6 to 10-day outlook shows that above-normal temperatures should prevail across much of the western U.S. and along the immediate Gulf coast into Florida. Meanwhile, precipitation is projected to be above normal across much of the Midwest and High Plains, possibly extending into the Northeast states. Near-normal rainfall is anticipated across the South and Southeast in the 6-10 day outlook, with below-normal precipitation expected in most of the West.

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