Weather Alerts For Fox Chase, PA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT SUMMARY Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible from the Great Basin into northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk may occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle. WV/PA/NY Recent surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Huron/central Ontario, with a cold front extending back southwestward through western OH and western KY. Current satellite shows the associated shortwave trough extending from central Ontario into the Mid MS Valley. This imagery also shows two embedded vorticity maxima, one near the surface low over central Ontario and the other farther southwest over IL/IN. This shortwave is expected to mature throughout the day, trending towards a more neutral tilt by this evening, while also gradually shifting eastward. The associated cold front is forecast to shift quickly eastward as well. At least scattered clouds will likely persist throughout the day, somewhat tempering the overall daytime heating. Even so, modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) ahead of the cold front will support a corridor of sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm development ahead of the front from western PA and WV eastward across PA and into southern/central NY. Linear forcing along the front and relatively modest deep-layer shear will favor a multicellular line segment mode. Potential exists for a few deeper updrafts capable of damaging gusts, but the limited heating ahead of the front, modest buoyancy, and displacement south and east of the stronger low to mid-level flow should keep the overall severe potential isolated. A few isolated instances of hail are possible early in the convective cycle before the more linear structures dominate. Recently issued MCD #0710 addresses this area as well. Great Basin into the northern Rockies Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined, negatively tilted shortwave trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through ID and MT today. Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected ahead of this wave from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the same time, mid-level moisture associated with the wave will advect eastward/northeastward, resulting in large area of deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles that are also buoyant enough to support convection and isolated lightning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the shortwave, with moderate mid-level flow extending southward from the primary wave through UT and far western CO. Scattered convection is expected as lift associated with the wave begins to interact with this destabilizing airmass, likely starting around 20/21Z from western MT into northern UT. This convection, which should include lightning-producing updrafts, will then spread eastward/northeastward with time. Strong to severe gusts are possible across this entire region, with the highest likelihood for severe gusts from central/southern ID into central MT where the strongest mid-level flow is expected. TX Panhandle Deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the TX Panhandle today, with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Low-level moisture advection should result in higher dewpoints across the eastern Panhandle, with the resultant dryline acting as a focus for convergence and attempts at convective initiation. The overall environment does not look conducive for initiation and majority of the CAMs do not show storm development. However, any storm that can persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of damaging wind gusts and large hail.