Weather Alerts For Inavale, NE

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the southern Plains today into tonight. Scattered damaging winds should also occur with thunderstorms across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. Southern Plains Mainly elevated thunderstorms are occurring across western/southwest KS into northwest OK this morning, aided by a 20-25 kt southerly low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection. This convection may tend to remain elevated for at least the next couple of hours, as a surface front remains draped near the Red River vicinity. However, there is substantial low-level moisture present across the TX Panhandle into western OK along/south of the ongoing thunderstorms (upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints). Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this moist airmass is supporting MUCAPE up to 3000-4000 J/kg. Strongly veering and modestly strengthening winds with height through mid/upper levels is fostering upwards of 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear per recent RAP forecast soundings and latest mesoanalysis estimates. This activity will likely continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail this morning so long as the mode remains supercellular. With time, mergers/outflow interactions should foster some clustering/upscale growth into the afternoon. There is some potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe/damaging winds to spread southward this afternoon and evening across parts of the TX Panhandle into western/central OK with one or more intense clusters that form. Isolated significant gusts to 75-85 mph gusts appear possible given an already very moist/unstable airmass that will undergo additional destabilization with daytime heating. Strongly considered increasing wind probabilities and introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area. But, ongoing morning convection casts a little too much uncertainty to upgrade with this outlook update. Central High Plains Thunderstorms ongoing across western NE this morning on the northern periphery of the low-level jet and related moisture plume have recently weakened. Still, this convection may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind risk for as long as it can persist. But, additional weakening is expected later this morning as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Otherwise, westerly mid-level flow and weak forcing will persist over the central High Plains today. Weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft should encourage at least isolated convective development across southeast WY into eastern CO by early/mid evening. Model trends suggest that robust convective initiation may be delayed until 00Z or perhaps even later (04-06Z). Still, a conditionally favorable environment for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong instability. Have maintained the Enhanced Risk for large to very large hail, but lower confidence exists for a swath of severe/damaging winds given the probable late timing of convection and tendency for this activity to remain discrete. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still occur with any sustained supercell. Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will also develop eastward across these areas through the afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop by late morning/early afternoon along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of southeast VA and eastern NC. A brief tornado or two may also occur with embedded mesocirculations in the line. Northern Plains/Upper Midwest A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas. Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this activity may pose an isolated severe hail/wind risk, along with a tornado or two. Modest instability should keep the overall severe risk fairly isolated/marginal.