Weather Alerts For Kearney City, NE

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. Synopsis An upper trough is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the California Coast. This wave will gradually de-amplify over the next 24 hours as it progresses northeastward into the northern Rockies. Further south, a lower-amplitude upper disturbance is noted off the coast of Baja CA, and will migrate northeast into southwest TX through this evening. Ahead of these features, modest lee troughing along the High Plains and the southeastward shift of surface high from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley will yield an extended fetch of southerly low-level flow from the TX coast into the upper MS Valley, resulting in northward moisture return as well as a broad zone of isentropic ascent from the Plains into the upper MS Valley. Southern High Plains Thunderstorm development appears likely by mid-afternoon across southwest TX as ascent associated with the upper disturbance off the coast of Baja CA migrates out of northern Mexico and overspreads returning moisture. Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale growth by early evening into one or more convective lines. As this transition occurs, strong to severe wind gusts will become the predominant hazard, though an embedded circulation or two may be possible. Based on latest guidance, the wind/tornado threat may be maximized along and south of the I-20 corridor where the signal for clustering/banding is greatest in latest CAM and ensemble guidance. Central Plains to the Upper MS Valley Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to strengthen to 40-50 knots by this evening and will support steady moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the upper MS Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear will not be overly strong (around 30 knots), it should be sufficient for a few transient organized cells capable of large hail. A more conditional supercell threat may materialize across portions of the lower MO valley where some CAM guidance depicts convection developing late afternoon along the surface warm front. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly capped, but moderately buoyant and strongly sheared environment may be in place that could support a well-organized supercell. However, poor ensemble consensus limits confidence in this scenario. Central to northern Rockies 00z RAOBs from the Great Basin/Four Corners region sampled steep mid-level lapse rates with modest mid-level moisture. While fairly dry, this environment was sufficient for convection yesterday and will likely support additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition and maximizes surface-based buoyancy. Ascent ahead of the decaying upper wave will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorms, and a combination of modest deep-layer wind shear and deep, well-mixed boundary layers will promote strong to severe downburst winds. A fairly strong wind signal in latest HREF guidance co-located with transient UH streaks lent enough confidence to expand 5% wind probabilities northwestward to address this concern. CA Coast A progressive upper wave will move into northern CA late this afternoon into the overnight hours. As this occurs, ascent within the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, should support isolated thunderstorms across northern CA. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km should increase to around 40 knots as the wave moves onshore, which may be augmented by convective downdrafts to yield a few damaging gusts along the coast.