Weather Alerts For Knoxville, AR

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SUMMARY Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains today with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah. Synopsis Current satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over northern Mexico, covering much of the Southeast and Texas. This imagery also shows an upper low centered near the ND/MN/Manitoba border intersection. These features are expected to remain largely in place throughout the day Wednesday, with a belt of moderate mid-level flow extending from the northern/central High Plains into mid MS Valley between these two features. Most guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving within this westerly flow across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley. A convectively augmented vorticity maximum is also forecast to arc through the northern periphery of the Southwest upper ridging, moving across the western Great Basin during the afternoon before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies during the evening/overnight. Evolution of these features, in addition to continued eastward/southeastward progress of any overnight convective complexes, will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Intermountain West to the MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over a few areas within this larger region, including northern/central UT, the Upper MS Valley, and from the central/southern High Plains into AR/MS. Central/Southern High Plains Low-level moisture will remain over the lower elevations of the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday, combining with strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates to support the development of strong buoyancy by late afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible across the majority of the region, with the highest coverage anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy is maximized as well. Deep-layer shear will be quite strong within this corridor as well, with 0-6 km shear from 55 to 65 kt possible. These conditions support the potential for robust supercells capable of large to very large hail. Hail from 3" to 4" in diameter is possible. Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this region as well, although the weak winds around 700 mb could result in slow supercell motion and potential for more storm interactions. Eventual upscale growth into forward-propagating MCS capable of strong to severe gusts is probable. Lower storm coverage is anticipated farther south, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, although some isolated hail is possible as well. Great Basin Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region during the afternoon, as the convectively augmented vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis interacts with modest mid-level moisture and resulting buoyancy. A deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer will support potential thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, particularly across northern UT where higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Upper Midwest A modest surface low, attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley, is forecast to shift eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s ahead this low, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy given the low 60s dewpoints. The belt of stronger mid-level flow will also support moderate vertical shear (i.e. around 40 of 0-6 km shear) and the potential for more organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. South-Central KS/OK/Arklatex into MS Evolution of the thunderstorms ongoing across eastern CO will significantly influence the early-day severe storm potential across the region. Current expectation is for some remnant of whatever cluster develops to be over south-central KS/north-central OK at the start of the period, perhaps beginning to interact with the western extent of a zone of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms extending from north-central OK into southern AR/northern LA. Low predictability limits forecast confidence, but some limited severe potential, both within the cluster and within the more cellular warm-air advection storms, could exist in the morning if this scenario materializes. The downstream airmass will be very moist, and is forecast to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s. This could lead to a reintensification of the cluster and/or new development along its outflow. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but strong updrafts could result in enough water loading to produce a few strong gusts as the cluster continues southeastward. Southern MS/AL Some guidance indicates the cluster currently moving across northern LA restrengthens as it moves through southern MS and southern AL later this morning/afternoon. Like the areas farther northwest, this region will be weakly sheared, but a few stronger water-loaded gusts are possible.