Weather Alerts For Semora, NC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND VICINITY SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are possible today across northern Iowa and vicinity, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight As the primary cyclone occludes near the southwest SK/southeast AB border, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt will be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon and then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. A storm cluster will likely be ongoing near the southwest MN/northwest IA border at the start of the period, as a continuation of the ongoing storms along the NE/SD border. These morning storms will pose a threat for occasional large hail/wind damage along the warm front/buoyancy gradient through midday/early afternoon. In the wake of the morning storms, a surface warm front demarcating boundary-layer dewpoints into the 70s will likewise move northward slowly across IA into southern MN/WI. West of the morning storms, a warm elevated mixed layer observed in 00Z soundings across the central Plains will act to cap the moistening boundary layer and likely inhibit additional warm sector storm development through much of the period. A few storms will be possible in ND during the afternoon, though storm coverage/intensity are both in question given weak-moderate buoyancy and limited forcing for ascent. Much of the severe threat will likely be delayed until tonight immediately north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of richer moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and occasional severe gusts. Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms tonight. Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening An MCV now over KY will turn more southeastward today, downstream from an amplifying ridge over the lower and middle MS Valley. Destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates in cloud breaks, along with ~25 kt midlevel flow, will support isolated wind damage potential with storm clusters during the afternoon/evening. West TX late this afternoon/evening Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.