Weather Alerts For Willard, MO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC SUMMARY Severe storms capable of 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the central and southern Plains today into tonight. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with storms along the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered storms capable of isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Synopsis A mid-level trough will impinge on the Eastern Seaboard while upper ridging builds over the western into central CONUS today. Multiple mid-level impulses are poised to traverse the upper ridge, supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development in multiple rounds across the Plains. These rounds of storms will encompass the entire period (12Z Tuesday morning through 12Z Wednesday morning), resulting in a complex forecast. Nonetheless, stronger flow aloft associated with the ridge will advect an EML atop seasonal low-level moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an appreciable severe threat, especially over the central High Plains. Otherwise, a cold front approaching the East Coast will support a line of severe thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic. Portions of the central High Plains By afternoon peak heating, upslope flow beneath a glancing mid-level impulse will support the initiation of at least isolated storms. These storms will develop atop a relatively mixed boundary layer and surface dewpoints approaching 60 F, overspread by 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to locally strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE). Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with 50 kts of effective bulk shear driven by elongated hodographs with modest low-level curvature. Supercells will be the primary storm mode, accompanied by a threat for all hazards. Given the potential for a mixed boundary layer, intense gusts well exceeding 75 mph will be possible, in addition to hailstones potentially reaching the 2-3.5 inch range. Any supercells that can ingest terrain-induced low-level vertical vorticity may be accompanied by a landspout/hybrid tornado threat. Portions of the central and southern Plains A surface boundary currently resides along the Red River, with thunderstorms developing all along this boundary from the TX Panhandle to central MS. At the start of the forecast period (12Z Tuesday), an established low-level jet will be in the process of transporting a moist low-level airmass northward, perhaps encouraging northward movement of the surface boundary as well. However, an MCS may be develop somewhere along the KS/OK border at the start of the period along an elevated boundary, which will drift southeastward through the late morning/early afternoon hours. The evolution of this MCS and interacting convection with the aforementioned surface boundary introduces considerable uncertainty to the forecast, especially for late afternoon/early evening storms. If the MCS and merging surface boundary convection linger over the southern Plains through the day, later severe potential may be reduced. However, if convection can exit the Plains or somehow dissipate by late morning/early afternoon, enough destabilization may take place for an evening severe threat. Should the later scenario unfold, convective initiation over the southern High Plains may result in severe hail/wind producing supercells merging into a cold-pool driven MCS, which in turn may produce a severe wind swath with 75+ mph gusts. Given so much uncertainty with the details of this forecast, a broad area of 15 percent/CIG1 probabilities were introduced for portions of the central and southern Plains. Considerable adjustments to this forecast (upgrades or probabilities removal) may be needed depending on convective and subsequent modified environmental evolution through the first half of the period. Parts of the Northern Plains Cold temperatures aloft and 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will accompany the passage of an upper-low over parts of the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms initiating along the periphery of the upper low, amid a belt of stronger flow aloft (driving elongated hodographs) will support multicells and perhaps transient supercells capable of isolated severe wind and hail. Mid-Atlantic By late morning into early afternoon, surface temperatures warming into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, but distributed through tall/thin profiles given poor (5-6 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Nearly unidirectional tropospheric wind profiles will yield nearly 40 kts of effective (speed) shear, which will favor multicellular development and ultimately a squall line along/ahead of the cold front. Damaging gusts are expected to be the main threat, though a brief tornado may also occur wherever locally backed near-surface winds may be realized.